Losses by Alabama and Ole Miss mean SEC could be reduced to three bids, but Tennessee stands to benefit.
Indiana didn’t look like a playoff team against Ohio State, but a day of upsets keeps Hoosiers in the CFP field.
ACC positions itself for two bids, with Clemson knocking on the door for a third entry.
The SEC ate itself whole on Saturday, and after three playoff contenders from the nation’s most braggadocious conference went down, the ACC benefits. So does Indiana.
The Hoosiers went from in the field to out of the field to back in the field in a matter of hours.
Let’s get to my latest College Football Playoff bracket projection.
Reminder: This is not a projection of what I think Tuesday’s CFP rankings will look like. Rather, this projects what I think the playoff bracket will look like come selection Sunday on Dec. 8.
Also, remember: Top-four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games. To earn a top-four seed, a team must win its conference championship.
1. Ohio State (Big Ten)
The Buckeyes are playing their best ball. They destroyed Indiana, showing the chasm between a top-end and bottom-end playoff team. Ohio State can earn a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game by beating Michigan. Either OSU or Oregon is good enough to win the national championship, but I can’t resist the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten, given how strong they looked against Indiana. Last week’s projection: No. 5.
2. Georgia (SEC)
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck settled back into form these past two games. If his turnover woes are truly behind him, then the Bulldogs are national championship contenders. Georgia will face either Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs already whipped the Longhorns, and the Aggies aren’t in Georgia’s realm. Last week’s projection: No. 9 seed.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Tennessee, ACC get major playoff boost
CALM DOWN: The five biggest overreactions from Week 13
3. SMU (ACC)
The Mustangs have won nine in a row after blasting Virginia on Saturday. Credit Rhett Lashlee for triggering a quarterback change in September. A lot of coaches would have stuck with proven veteran Preston Stone, but Lashlee correctly saw more upside in Kevin Jennings, a two-year backup. SMU is playing like the most dangerous team housed outside of the Big Ten or SEC. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
4. Boise State (Group of Five)
Boise State receiving a first-round bye would be the chef’s kiss on this zany season. After surviving a scare from Wyoming, the Broncos should head into this weekend ranked ahead of any Big 12 team. Beating Oregon State would help Boise’s pitch for a bye. Important to this bracket format, the difference between being ranked as the fourth-best conference champion compared to the fifth-best conference champ could be the difference between being seeded No. 4 or No. 12. Last week’s projection: No. 12 seed.
5. Oregon (Big Ten)
Slotting Oregon here comes off as unfair to the undefeated Ducks, but it’s a testament to how well the way Ohio State is playing, and the challenge of beating the Buckeyes for a second time, with the rematch coming on a neutral field. Whether No. 1 or No. 5 in the bracket, the Ducks will be on the shortlist of national championship favorites, but missing out on the bye after a dominant regular season would sting. Last week’s projection: No. 1 seed.
6. Penn State (at-large)
A home win against Illinois remains Penn State’s best victory, but this season is becoming much less about marquee victories than it is avoiding losses. A No. 6 seed would become golden bracket positioning. Penn State could rest up on conference championship weekend, host one of the weakest playoff qualifiers in the first round and likely avoid a Big Ten or SEC team in the quarterfinals. Last week’s projection: No. 6 seed.
7. Notre Dame (at-large)
The red-hot Irish must be on upset alert this weekend at Southern California. The Trojans are 2-0 since changing quarterbacks, and they’re 4-1 at the Coliseum. USC’s only home loss came against Penn State, so if the Irish dominate, they’d even have a case to leapfrog Penn State, as long as the committee continues to forgive Notre Dame for losing to Northern Illinois. Last week’s projection: No. 7 seed.
8. Texas (at-large)
Texas enjoyed one of the SEC’s most favorable schedules, but now that stiffens. No playoff contender will face a tougher closing stretch than Texas. If the Longhorns beat rival Texas A&M in College Station, they’ll then face Georgia for the SEC championship. Few playoff qualifiers will be as complete as Texas is on each side of the ball. Last week’s projection: No. 10 seed.
9. Tennessee (at-large)
Courtesy of Alabama and Mississippi losing, the Volunteers went from being the first team out of last week’s bracket to nearly being positioned to host a first-round playoff game. Hosting would be quite a prize for the Vols, who play much better at home. A Penn State or Notre Dame loss probably would lift Tennessee into a first-round home game. That’s if the Vols beat Vanderbilt, an outcome that shouldn’t be assumed. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
10. Miami (at-large)
Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech took some steam out of Cam Ward’s Heisman Trophy campaign, but he’s still playing as well as any quarterback. He gives Miami a chance every time he suits up. Given last weekend’s chaos, Miami might enjoy enough wiggle room to qualify for the playoff as the ACC’s runner-up, but it can’t afford a loss at Syracuse on Saturday. That’s no layup. Last week’s projection: No. 3 seed.
11. Indiana (at-large)
Indiana didn’t resemble a playoff team in a blowout loss to Ohio State, but the implosion of three SEC playoff contenders should allow the Hoosiers to stay in the field. Indiana will have the most favorable matchup of any CFP contender in its regular-season finale, facing 10-loss Purdue. That’s a chance for a blowout victory to calm any committee concerns. Last week’s projection: No. 11 seed.
12. Brigham Young (Big 12)
BYU has lost two in a row, and it needs either Arizona State or Iowa State to lose to make the Big 12 championship game. So, why roll with the Cougars? Because, of the Big 12’s top contenders, BYU enjoys the most winnable game Saturday, a home date with reeling Houston. BYU nearly rallied to beat Arizona State on the road last weekend. The team that showed up in Tempe after halftime is a team that can win the Big 12. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
Dropping out of last week’s bracket projection
∎ Alabama
∎ Mississippi
∎ Colorado
Why my latest CFP bracket projection does not include Arizona State
Arizona State must get past rival Arizona, a team that woefully underachieved. Wouldn’t it be a fitting end to this anything-goes season the Wildcats to suddenly get right and spoil its rival’s playoff bid? I suspect the Big 12 isn’t finished dealing surprises.
Why my latest CFP bracket projection does not include Clemson
Beating South Carolina on Saturday would put Clemson in the on-deck circle for a playoff bid, if any chaos ensues elsewhere. In other words, Clemson could be a Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt away from qualifying, or a Miami loss to Syracuse away from getting a crack at the ACC championship.
Would I be surprised to see Clemson in the bracket? No, but, for now, I can’t find a spot.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
