Resumes are everything when it comes to making the NCAA men’s tournament, but as some teams have shown, going on hot or cold streaks can dramatically alter where a team falls in the bracket.
There’s been some significant shifts in the newest edition of the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, highlights by teams like Michigan State, Clemson and Brigham Young making big jumps thanks to impressive winning streaks.
Don’t think you have to be in the Big Ten or SEC to improve your stock either; squads in the Mountain West and West Coast Conference are getting rewarded for capitalizing on opportunities. Meanwhile, some of the big names in the sport like Kansas and Purdue are seeing their projected spot in the field continue to fall, inching toward being in the bottom half of the field.
It’s the penultimate week of the regular season for most of the country, while few will be preparing for conference tournaments after the weekend. Here are the teams on the rise and teams that are falling down the projected bracket.
Rising
Michigan State
Current projected seed: No. 2 (South)
The Spartans jumped two seed lines after an impressive week with convincing Quad 1 defeat of Purdue and rival Michigan, with the latter coming on the road. They are now tied on top of the Big Ten and have an impressive Quad 1 record of 8-4. A No. 1 seed seems unlikely, but Michigan State can really position itself at the two line with four Quad 1 games to finish the regular season, starting with a trip to Maryland this week.
Clemson
Current projected seed: No. 5 (West)
Don’t tell Clemson the ACC is down as the Tigers continue to climb, up three seed lines from earlier this month. After beating Duke, Clemson has followed with three more wins, all by double-digits, and have the second-best NET rankings in the conference at No. 22. The rest of the regular season is relatively easy, so the Tigers are well-positioned to have their best record in ACC play.
Utah State
Current projected seed: No. 7 (East)
Utah State has jumped back into the top half of the bracket and up three seed lines from last week. The emphatic win over San Diego State did wonders for Utah State’s resume, which now includes a 10-4 Quad 1 and 2 record. A chance to boost the resume awaits the Aggies with road trips to Boise State and Colorado State − both Quad 1 opportunities − this week.
Saint Mary’s
Current projected seed: No. 6 (West)
The Gaels have been a No. 5 seed in the past three tournaments are trending back toward a familiar spot. The West Coast Conference regular season championship was locked up Saturday with their first season sweep of Gonzaga since the 2015-16 season. Saint Mary’s has a strong NET rankings of No. 16 and a 4-2 Quad 1 record and are locked into the WCC semifinals already.
Brigham Young
Current projected seed: No. 8 (East)
In less than two weeks, BYU has gone from First Four territory to safely in the field. The Cougars moved to the top half of the bracket with a four-game win streak that includes three Quad 1 victories − a home drubbing of Kansas and victories at West Virginia and Arizona. They can add another Quad 1 win against Arizona State on Wednesday and are well positioned to make back-to-back tournaments for the first time since 2014-15.
Oklahoma
Current projected seed: No. 12 (South, First Four)
Oklahoma has gone from being out of the field to now in the First Four thanks to a much-needed home defeat of Mississippi State. The win snapped a five game skid, but the Sooners still need more if they want to keep their spot. The four remaining games of the regular season are Quad 1 contests, starting with Kentucky visiting on Wednesday.
Falling
Purdue
Current projected seed: No. 4 (East)
Thanks to a four-game losing streak, Purdue has gone from a No. 2 seed to now sitting at No. 4. A strong resume is what’s keeping the Boilermakers in the top 16 and sure, all four losses were Quad 1 games, but the latest defeat to Indiana was a big setback. Friday’s game against UCLA is critical to change momentum and keep them in that No. 4 position.
Kansas
Current projected seed: No. 7 (West)
The preseason No. 1 team continues to have an epic fall down the projected bracket. After suffering a bad road loss against Utah, the Jayhawks got destroyed by BYU for one of their worst losses under Bill Self. They have responded with back-to-back wins, but they came two of the worst Big 12 teams – Oklahoma State and Colorado. Kansas can climb back up with three tough games to close the regular season, but it currently are in position for its lowest seed since it was a No. 8 in 2000.
Illinois
Current projected seed: No. 9 (South)
The blowout loss to Duke at Madison Square Garden perfectly summarized how bad things have gotten in Champaign. It was the third consecutive loss that pushed Illinois to a 9-8 Big Ten record, resulting in it falling in the bottom half of the bracket, far from the No. 4 spot it was in at the end of January. The Fighting Illini got a much needed win against Iowa, and have a big matchup against Michigan on Sunday.
Gonzaga
Current projected seed: No. 10 (Midwest)
Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak is in jeopardy with Gonzaga now slated to be a double-digit seed. It suffered the season sweep of Saint Mary’s and now has a measly Quad 1 record of 2-6. The NET ranking of No. 10 will ensure the Bulldogs make the tournament, but they are currently slated for their lowest seed since they were a No. 11 in 2016. The Quad 1 win over Santa Clara could really help generate some momentum with San Francisco in the regular season finale.
Ohio State
Current projected seed: No. 11 (Midwest, First Four)
The amount of losses are really starting to hurt Ohio State, which now has a mediocre 15-13 record. It had an inexcusable home blowout defeat to Northwestern before losing on the road to UCLA. The No. 34 spot in the NET ranking helps, but the 8-13 Quad 1 and 2 record is becoming increasingly suspect. The Buckeyes can’t afford losing to Southern California on Wednesday.
Georgia
Current projected seed: Out
After starting the season 14-2, Georgia went 2-9 afterward and was headed out of the tournament picture. The Bulldogs don’t have a bad loss on the season, but continuously losing is what was hurting them. However, Georgia could be back in the mix soon after pulling off a wild upset over Florida on Tuesday. It snapped a four-game skid and was the biggest win of the season for the Bulldogs, giving them a third Quad 1 victory.
